Methodology - 2022 U.S. Gubernatorial Election Model
Updated May 15, 2023 at 09:08 PMView Full Model (Google Sheets)
The 2022 election models were a big shift away from the very primitive techniques I used with the 2020 models. The 2023 Gubernatorial Model, the only forecast for 2023, follows suit and conitnues to use the new strategies first implemented with the 2022 Midterms. The one new feature in the 2023 and 2024 models is that undecided voters are now accounted for with poll calculations. If poll percents do not total 100%, I split them up evenly amongst both parties to give a more accurate picture that isn't deflated. This should make it less likely for the candidate's probabilities to not total 100%, leading to more realistic predictions.
For the Recent History category, I used historical data from 270ToWin to find the percentage of the past 12 or so elections that each party had won. The Last Election category was simply the percent of the vote in the last election for this particular seat, which I got from Wikipedia. The Expert Forecast category looks at 270ToWin's Consensus Forecast Map and assigns each color a percent value, ranging from 50% to 70% depending on how safe a race is. The Polls category is pretty straightforward, with it of course just being dependent on how a party's candidate is polling in that race. This data comes from FiveThirtyEight's polling averages, or if no average is available whatever the latest poll was. The 2023 Gubernatorial model DOES account for undecided voters/remaining votes with polls, so if you had a poll result of 49% and 49%, it splits the remaining 2% up between the two candidates unlike older models.
The race ratings average both party's percentages across all categories, and then whoever has a higher probability based on the average is the predicted winner of that race. This gives much more accurate and numerical results than the old model which was not specific at all. You can view the ratings and see the correspondence to the categories won above by clicking the spreadsheet link. (green button)