2023-24 Big Eight Football
Forecasts & Predictions
Updated April 21, 2024 at 04:14 PM
Methodology (How This Works)
These ratings/projections are no longer being updated as the 2023-24 regular season is over for all Big Eight teams. Playoff games will not affect ratings. Preseason ratings and predictions will be available next year. The model had an 82% accuracy rate with predicting the winners of the in-conference games.
A few notes about this page:
- The table features current stats/ ratings of all teams as they stand today, and it shows how their rating changed after their last game. This is updated the most frequently. Click on any of the headers (points, record, etc.) to sort using that category.
- Upcoming Game Projections: This is what the ratings are actually useful for. I have a simple model that forecasts how competitive a game is and who is likely to win based on the ratings, as well as who has the home field advantage, and you can view the chances for every in-conference game below. The little number in the upper-right corner is the competitiveness score. Basically, a higher number simply means the game should be closer and it isn't lopsided, whereas a lower number means the model is more confident in determining who will win.
| Rank | School | Overall Record | CHEsS Rating | Last Game +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. |  Verona |
8-1 | 1573 | +48 |
| 2. |  Middleton |
8-1 | 1475 | +60 |
| 3. |  Janesville Parker |
6-3 | 1401 | +45 |
| 4. |  Madison Memorial |
6-3 | 1373 | +74 |
| 5. |  Janesville Craig |
5-4 | 1189 | -11 |
| 6. |  Madison West |
2-7 | 984 | -4 |
| 7. |  Madison East |
1-8 | 811 | -7 |
| 8. |  Madison La Follette |
0-9 | 788 | -17 |
Past Conference Matchups
The team with the grey background in each card was the home team. The team with the colored square was the winner, and if it is green, the model predicted the winner correctly, red means it was an upset.
October 13th, 2023
66
|
Janesville Craig | 39% |
|
Madison Memorial | 61% |
0
|
Madison West | 14% |
|
Verona | 86% |
0
|
Madison La Follette | 14% |
|
Janesville Parker | 86% |
October 12th, 2023
0
|
Middleton | 84% |
|
Madison East | 16% |
October 6th, 2023
19
|
Janesville Parker | 77% |
|
Madison East | 23% |
59
|
Verona | 64% |
|
Janesville Craig | 36% |
18
|
Madison West | 23% |
|
Middleton | 77% |
7
|
Madison La Follette | 19% |
|
Madison Memorial | 81% |
September 29th, 2023
3
|
Verona | 82% |
|
Madison La Follette | 18% |
92
|
Janesville Parker | 47% |
|
Middleton | 53% |
75
|
Madison Memorial | 58% |
|
Madison West | 42% |
24
|
Madison East | 25% |
|
Janesville Craig | 75% |
September 23rd, 2023
89
|
Madison East | 46% |
|
Madison La Follette | 54% |
September 22nd, 2023
85
|
Janesville Craig | 45% |
|
Middleton | 55% |
79
|
Verona | 57% |
|
Madison Memorial | 43% |
48
|
Madison West | 33% |
|
Janesville Parker | 67% |
September 14th, 2023
33
|
Madison La Follette | 28% |
|
Janesville Craig | 72% |
71
|
Middleton | 40% |
|
Madison Memorial | 60% |
81
|
Madison West | 56% |
|
Madison East | 44% |
83
|
Janesville Parker | 44% |
|
Verona | 56% |
September 8th, 2023
76
|
Madison La Follette | 42% |
|
Madison West | 58% |
89
|
Janesville Parker | 46% |
|
Janesville Craig | 54% |
53
|
Madison Memorial | 66% |
|
Madison East | 34% |
98
|
Verona | 49% |
|
Middleton | 51% |
September 1st, 2023
68
|
Madison Memorial | 39% |
|
Janesville Parker | 61% |
80
|
Janesville Craig | 57% |
|
Madison West | 43% |
48
|
Madison East | 33% |
|
Verona | 67% |
77
|
Middleton | 58% |
|
Madison La Follette | 42% |