1. Home
  2. Projects
  3. Archive
  4. Past Elections
  5. 2022
  6. U.S. House Model

2022 U.S. House Election Model (Competitive Races)

Methodology (How This Works)

District: Money Raised: % Recent History: % LE: % Expert Forecast: % Polls: % Forecast: Confidence % Correct:
AKAL R 100 R 54.4 D 70 D 56 R 70.1 0
AZ1 D 100 R 93.3 R 52.2 R 70 TU 47 R 90.6 1
AZ2 D 52 R 63.2 D 51.6 R 70 R 45 R 56.4 1
AZ6 R 60.8 D 63.2 D 55.1 R 70 D 49 D 59.6 0
CA9 D 82.5 D 100 D 57.6 D 70 TU 38 D 69.6 1
CA13 R 53.1 D 73.7 D 55.2 TU 50 TU 38 D 54 0
CA22 R 59.5 R 94.7 R 50.5 TU 50 D 39 R 58.8 1
CA27 R 68.1 R 73.7 R 50.1 R 70 D 47 R 61.8 1
CA45 R 62.2 R 68.4 R 50.6 R 70 R 62.8 1
CA47 D 90.2 R 89.5 D 53.5 D 70 D 75.8 1
CA49 D 50.9 R 73.3 D 53.1 D 70 D 61.8 1
CO8 D 66.1 R 70 R 46 R 60.7 0
CT5 D 69 D 57.9 D 55.1 D 70 D 47.8 D 59.9 1
FL7 R 97.3 R 63.2 D 55.3 R 80 R 74 1
IA2 R 64.2 R 73.7 R 51.2 R 70 TU 44 R 60.6 1
IA3 D 73.7 D 68.4 D 48.9 R 70 R 46 D 61.4 0
IL13 D 64.7 R 100 R 54.5 D 70 D 39 D 65.6 1
IL17 R 65.1 D 94.7 D 52 TU 50 D 47 D 61.8 1
IN1 R 56.9 D 100 D 56.6 D 70 D 47 D 66.1 1
KS3 D 67.7 R 57.9 D 53.6 D 70 D 55 D 60.8 1
ME2 D 61.5 D 63.2 D 53 TU 50 D 47 D 54.9 1
MI3 D 72.4 R 78.9 R 53 D 70 D 44 D 63.7 1
MI7 D 78.9 R 52.6 D 50.9 TU 50 D 47 D 55.9 1
MI8 D 63.1 D 78.9 D 54.4 D 70 R 45 D 62.3 1
MI10 R 84 D 63.2 D 57.7 R 70 R 44.7 R 63.9 1
MN2 D 69.8 R 68.4 D 48.2 TU 50 D 46 D 56.5 1
NC13 D 53 R 50 R 68.2 R 70 D 42.6 R 56.8 0
NE2 R 54.5 R 78.9 R 50.8 R 70 R 48.3 R 60.5 1
NH1 D 60.2 R 68.4 D 51.3 D 70 D 47.2 D 59.4 1
NJ7 D 67.8 R 89.5 D 50.6 R 70 TU 48 D 65.2 0
NM2 R 55.4 R 89.5 R 53.7 R 70 R 49.4 R 63.6 0
NV1 D 71.2 D 89.5 D 61.8 D 70 R 54 D 69.3 1
NV3 D 72.3 R 60 D 48.8 TU 50 R 52 D 56.6 1
NV4 D 72.1 D 80 D 50.7 D 70 D 51 D 64.8 1
NY1 D 66 D 52.6 R 54.9 R 70 TU 60.9 1
NY3 R 50.5 R 52.6 D 56 D 70 D 42 D 54.2 0
NY4 D 58.2 D 68.4 D 56.1 D 70 R 48 D 60.1 0
NY17 D 81.9 D 100 D 59.3 D 60 R 52 D 70.6 0
NY18 D 67.7 D 100 D 55.8 D 70 D 49 D 68.5 1
NY19 D 61.9 R 57.9 D 54.8 TU 50 D 46 D 54.1 0
NY22 D 78.1 R 84.2 R 53.1 R 70 D 45 R 66.1 1
OH1 D 55.6 R 68.4 R 51.8 R 70 D 49 R 59 0
OH9 D 75.3 D 100 D 63.1 D 70 D 47 D 71.1 1
OH13 D 53.1 R 94.7 R 63.2 R 70 D 47 R 65.6 0
OR4 R 64.8 D 100 D 51.5 D 70 D 46 D 66.5 1
OR5 D 58.9 D 78.9 D 51.9 R 70 D 41 D 60.1 0
OR6 R 54.7 D 60 R 44.3 R 53 0
PA7 D 56.7 R 73.7 D 51.9 R 60 D 47 D 57.9 1
PA8 D 66.7 R 57.9 D 51.8 TU 50 D 48.1 D 54.9 1
PA17 D 52.7 D 52.6 D 51.1 TU 50 D 49 D 51.1 1
RI2 D 63.4 D 84.2 D 58.2 TU 50 R 47.1 D 60.6 1
TN5 D 50.7 D 100 D 100 R 80 D 51 D 76.3 0
TX15 R 69 D 100 D 50.5 R 70 TU 45 R 66.9 1
TX28 D 62.1 D 100 D 58.3 D 60 D 70.1 1
TX34 R 57.1 D 100 D 55.4 TU 50 D 47 D 61.9 1
VA2 D 76.7 D 52.6 D 51.6 R 60 TU 45 D 57.2 0
VA7 D 73.8 R 89.5 D 50.8 D 70 D 46 D 66 1
WA8 D 79.4 R 89.5 D 51.7 D 70 D 47 D 67.5 1
WI3 R 79 D 68.4 D 51.3 R 80 R 45 R 64.7 1
Overall: D 65.3 R 75.4 D 52.9 R 65.6 D 41.9 D 62.9
Projected Republicans Elected: 19
Projected Democrats Elected: 39
Toss Ups: 1