This page allows you to run a Monte Carlo simulation, an algorithm that uses repeated random sampling to find possible outcomes and their probabilities. It iterates through all of the individual probabilities for each state and determines which outcome occurs the most, and if it guarantees Democratic/Republican control of the Senate. The state probabilities come from my 2022 U.S. Senate Model, available here. This is the Lite version of the Simulation, which is purely based on polling data. Each state either uses the current FiveThirtyEight polling average or if that is not available, the latest individual poll. It assigns that number as the probability for the state.