2022 U.S. Senate Election Simulation - Lite
This senate simulation has been updated with all projected races (CNN) and now displays the guaranteed outcomes. As you can see, all outcomes result in Democratic control with a 51 seat majority.
This page allows you to run a Monte Carlo simulation, an algorithm that uses repeated random sampling to find possible outcomes and their probabilities. It iterates through all of the individual probabilities for each state and determines which outcome occurs the most, and if it guarantees Democratic/Republican control of the Senate. The state probabilities come from my 2022 U.S. Senate Model, available here. This is the Lite version of the Simulation, which is purely based on polling data. Each state either uses the current FiveThirtyEight polling average or if that is not available, the latest individual poll. It assigns that number as the probability for the state.
How The Majority Odds Changed After Polls Closed (In Hours After 6 PM EST)
How The Expected Seats Changed After Polls Closed (In Hours After 6 PM EST)