2022 U.S. Senate Election Simulation - Lite

This page allows you to run a Monte Carlo simulation, an algorithm that uses repeated random sampling to find possible outcomes and their probabilities. It iterates through all of the individual probabilities for each state and determines which outcome occurs the most, and if it guarantees Democratic/Republican control of the Senate. The state probabilities come from my 2022 U.S. Senate Model, available here. This is the Lite version of the Simulation, which is purely based on polling data. Each state either uses the current FiveThirtyEight polling average or if that is not available, the latest individual poll. It assigns that number as the probability for the state.

How The Majority Odds Changed After Polls Closed (In Hours After 6 PM EST)

How The Expected Seats Changed After Polls Closed (In Hours After 6 PM EST)

35 Senate seats are up for election this cycle.
Democrats/Independents Republicans Total
Not Up For Election 37 28 65
Up For Election But Considered Safe 7 12 19
Minimum Assumed 40 84
Senate Seats Up For Grabs