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AG (Attention Getter)

At this point, it seems like Putin has been the Russian President longer than Russia has existed as a country. During his long reign, a lot has happened globally. But Putin has always been there, serving as a constant, becoming perhaps the world's most infamous leader to this day.

Q (Question)

Will Putin outlast the war in Ukraine?

Answer (Summary Of Speech)

Yes, Putin and his regime will likely outlast his war in Ukraine. This is because he isn't directly threatened by the conflict, even if Russia can't win, they can't really lose, and Putin is immensely protected in many ways.

BG (Background)

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 4th, 2022, after ramping up their military presence surronding the small European country for months, sparking an ongoing violent conflict. Questions have been asked about Russia's success in the invasion.

R1 (First Reason)

Vladimir Putin is not directly impacted by the war in Ukraine. Journal of Democracy 11/2022 explains that sanctions and other actions similar to sanctions don't work on dictatorships very well, and this is easy to see. Putin has not cared about Western sanctions since they were first announced, and he refuses to back down because of them. Also, due to media censorship in Russia, the Russian public finds the West at fault for their economic struggles and others. Regime change is unlikely to happen, as Putin still has lots of support in Russia. Part of the reason that sanctions are not as effective is that the United States is already mostly disconnected economically from Russia, so there is not much to change with sanctions in the first place. Also, sanctions end up hurting normal citizens more than those who have power over them.

R2 (Second Reason)

Russia realistically cannot lose the war. Bloomberg 3/23/22 talks about how the odds of a "Moscow spring" scenario, with massive upheaval, regime change, and potential resolution are slim. Russia may be wounded as a result of the war, but they are more than capable of recovering, as they have wealth and power to assist them. It also should be noted that critics may leave the country, helping the regime control even more without resistance. The reality is that Russia can not effectively be hurt in the long run.

R3 (Third Reason)

Putin is greatly protected in many ways. American Security Project 6/8/2022 discusses how any chance of regime change is simply too unlikely. Putin has constructed a system that protects him from any kind of coup or takeover, even going so far as to implement agents in the military trained to prevent defection/dissent. Anti-Putin speech is also essentially disallowed in Russia, and the military and police forces are designed to prevent any sort of uprising against the Kremlin. Plus, many Russians still approve of Putin, as they believe he has brought the country stablitiy & strength.

C (Conclusion)

Putin is simply not affected directly by sanctions or other Western efforts to enact consequences for Russia, as Western efforts to change the regime have been proven to fail. Even if Russia can't win, they can't lose, and the worst possible result would be the equivalent of a draw in Ukraine. Finally, Putin is greatly protected, both physically and in terms of his power, and he is too protected to be removed.