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AG (Attention Getter)

On Feburary 24th, 2022, Russia did something unprecedented. It was a move that many experts, and the public could have seen coming, but nonetheless one that still caught the world off guard. That move was the invasion of Ukraine.

BG (Background)

Since Putin's invasion began in 2022, Russia-related tensions have been at the forefront of U.S. politics, as well as international relations. The conflict has essentially been a stalemate since its beginning, and both sides continue to not make much progress in any significant ways. Vladimir Putin has consistently made escalatory remarks and threats, many times aimed at the West.

Q (Question)

Will Putin's move to put tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus escalate the war in Ukraine?

Answer (Summary Of Speech)

The reality is that Putin's potential weapon movements likely won't have a huge impact in terms of escalation in Ukraine. We see that Russia has made various threats since the beginning, most with no result. We also know that no one wants escalation, and any kind of escalation would be devastating for Russia. Lastly, we see that Belarus themselves is increasingly hesistant to aid Russia in this way.

R1 (First Reason)

Russia has made many threats throughout the duration of the conflict. PBS 9/28/22 explains that U.S. intelligence clearly shows that although a nuclear action by Russia is possible, it would be extremely costly for the Kremlin and is unlikely to happen. We also know from historical examples that Putin's escalatory measures in the past haven't helped Russia's case, and their threat credibility is very low due to the number of false claims they spread.

R2 (Second Reason)

All parties are against escalation, and Russia should be as well. The National Interest 10/20/22 says that Russia's military forces largely lack the training, planning skills, and overall tactics required to effectively use any kind of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Their current capabilities are simply not sufficient for this type of weapon. They have also maintained a Soviet-style top-down command system, leaving their communication and mission strategies ineffective, particularly with more advanced operations like a nuclear weapon.

R3 (Third Reason)

Associated Press News 3/1/23 discusses how both Belarus & China are calling for negotiations or a ceasefire in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Lukashenko, the Belarusian President, has been an ally of Putin for a long time, but there is a hesitancy between the two that we haven't seen before. Despite Lukashenko acknowledging the potential of a nuclear weapon movement, he and his country are hesitant to provoke Ukraine & the West even more than they already have, and it seems like they want more neutrality in their position.

C (Conclusion)

Although it is certainly possible that the movements of these nuclear weapons to Belarus do indeed become a reality, major implications or escalation are unlikely. Russia's threats in the past demonstrate they lack credibility, no one wants escalation, and Belarus themselves are hesistant to aid Russia even more.