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AG (Attention Getter)

In what is typically a dormant spring election cycle, there might be what is the most pivotal race this year in the country, and perhaps the most consequential for years to come. That election is for Justice on the Wisconsin State Supreme Court.

BG (Background)

The 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court election has conservative candidate Daniel Kelly, a former justice on the court who lost his re-election bid in 2020, facing off against liberal Janet Protasiewicz, a Milwaukee county judge in what has become a nationally-watched election.

Q (Question)

Who will win the Wisconsin Supreme Court election?

Answer (Summary Of Speech)

Janet Protasiewicz, the liberal-backed candidate, will win the election. This is because of liberal's performance in the primary round, the fact that abortion is at the forefront of the race, and that Wisconsin had favored left candidates in divisive/polarizing elections recently.

R1 (First Reason)

The primary round of voting for this race can be telling for how the general election will turn out. Wisconsin Public Radio 2/27/23 explains that liberal candidates Janet Protasiewicz and Everett Mitchell, a Dane County judge, outperformed the conservatives, Jennifer Dorow of Waukesha County along with Kelly. Protasiewicz and Mitchell had a combined 54% of the voteshare, a strong result compared to the conservatives' 46%. There were more votes overall for liberals, and a record-high turnout for a spring primary election statewide. We see that an increase in turnout almost always favors democratic/liberal candidates, so this is important to note. We also saw that conservatives were much more on the fence when it came to choosing their general election candidate, with Justice Kelly winning by a margin less than 3%. On the other hand, Protasiewicz was the clear choice amongst liberals, defeating Mitchell by over 40%. This shows that conservatives are split heavily on who they prefer, meaning some may be less motivated to vote for Kelly if they wanted Dorow.

R2 (Second Reason)

The issue of abortion helps get out the liberal vote. The New York Times 2/22/23 says that Janet Protasiewicz has made abortion the key focus of her campaign and it's attacks on Daniel Kelly, and it is an issue that democrats/liberals prioritize currently in Wisconsin and nationwide. A 4-3 liberal court, compared to the current 4-3 conservative makeup, could lead to a case and potential reversal of Wisconsin's 1849 abortion ban if Protasiewicz were elected. There would be virtually no chance of this with Kelly, hence the importance to liberals. There was also a high turnout in key liberal locations like Dane County, home to Madison, with 40% of the turnout that the 2020 presidential election had, surpassing expectations. Liberals are clearly motivated and energized to go and vote to fight for the right to an abortion.

R3 (Third Reason)

In decisive elcetions with drastically different candidates, Wisconsin has favored the liberal/democrat more often. President Biden won the state by 20,000 votes in 2020, and in 2022, Governor Tony Evers won re-election by almost 4 points, a large margin in a crucial swing state, despite Mandela Barnes losing to incumbent Ron Johnson in the Senate race. This is all despite the fact that the state legislature is Republican controlled. The fact that Daniel Kelly is vocal about his extreme stances will only help the liberals, as they paint Kelly as a direct threat to democracy and basic rights, according to The Cap Times 2/28/2023.

C (Conclusion)

Janet Protasiewicz will win the Wisconsin Supreme Court election because primary turnout was high, abortion boosts overall liberal turnout, and Wisconsin has picked left candidates in close and decisive elections, as well as the fact that Daniel Kelly is portrayed as extreme.