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AG (Attention Getter)

United States airspace has a lot of things in it, like commercial aircraft, cargo transport, or civil aviation. But now, there is a newcomer to that space. And apparently, it's Chinese spy balloons.

BG (Background)

China & the United States are dueling global economic/military powers, and recently tensions have been flaring between the two countries at heightened levels. The American public has been extremely attentive to one specific case of the two nations clashing, that being the confirmed sighting and shoot down of a Chinese intelligence-gathering device over the U.S. in recent weeks.

Q (Question)

What impact will balloons have on U.S.-Sino relations?

Answer (Summary Of Speech)

The reality is that these balloons won't have any major implications in Chinese-U.S. relations. This is because China likely will end their balloon program globally, they have more important issues to deal with, and because neither country wants any kind of escalation.

R1 (First Reason)

China knows that they can't use this tactic anymore. The Biden administration has been extremely vigilant in shooting down four separate un-identified objects over U.S. airspace in recent weeks. If China were to continue sending balloons, it would be a waste of their time, efforts, and resources to do so as they would swiftly be dealt with. Plus, China has many other methods of gathering surveillance on American targets, particularly with low-orbit satellites already being used. The fact is that the U.S. values protecting their information and secrets very highly, and another balloon would prove to be useless. Associated Press 2/9/23 explains that the current Chinese program could gather intelligence on hundreds of other countries in addition to the United States. However, given that the U.S. and it's allies are aware of this, they will work together to prevent such a program from continuing, and the U.S. is responding more rapidly now than ever to potential threats.

R2 (Second Reason)

China has more important issues to focus on and deal with right now. The Economist 10/10/22 talks about how one of these important issues is the nation's extensive plans for Taiwan. China values the possession of it's island-nation neighbor greatly, and are pushed to control it by their belief that Taiwan is Chinese territory. Also, China is involved in the Russia-Ukraine war, essentially caught in the middle of it. They claim that they want a "peaceful" end to the conflict, but continue to supply weapons to Russia, putting them in a tricky spot when it comes to maintaining a clear stance and communicating it to other countries. On the domestic front, China is dealing with protests against it's government as a result of it's "zero-COVID" measures that were put into place as a response to the pandemic. They have more important things to deal with right now than balloons over the United States.

R3 (Third Reason)

No one, including China & the United States, wants any form of escalation in relations. Throughout the entire history of relations between the two countries, there has been a back-and-forth "blame game" between them. The Diplomat 11/20/2013 talks about how China has a strong intention to avoid conflict with the U.S. They do not want any kind of friction because they rely on the United States in several key areas, so they are unable to turn on us. This is because of our cooperation with the Chinese in various fields. Also, the United States would not have good chances against the Chinese if we went into a head-to-head conflict with the Chinese. Bloomberg 9/18/2022 discusses how the current conflict in Ukraine shows that the U.S. can't win against China. This is demonstrated due to the fact that China has been supplying Russia with weapons throughout the conflict's duration, and the U.S. has been unable to keep up with assisting Ukraine in their fight against Russia. This is telling as it means we likely would have the same struggle against China themselves.

C (Conclusion)

It's clear that the recent balloon sightings/shootdowns over U.S. airspace won't have a major impact on U.S.-Sino relations as a whole. This is because China will not keep pushing with their balloon program as it will likely be much more unsuccessful than it previously was. China also has more pressing issues to deal with domestically and abroad, and neither country wants any kind of escalation.