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AG (Attention Getter)

A little over a year ago, Russia did something unprecedented. It was something that there were clear signs of it occuring, yet analysts and politicans alike didn't expect it to actually happen. That event was the invasion of Ukraine.

BG (Background)

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th of 2022, in what Vladimir Putin labeled a "peace-keeping" operation in the area. Since the start of the conflict, it has essentially been a stalemate, and despite most of the discussion surronding what the U.S. and other foreign powers should do to intervene, we are forgetting something important. What about what Russia & Ukraine should do? After all, Putin started this war, so could he end it?

Q (Question)

Is there any "off-ramp" that Vladimir Putin is likely to take to de-escalate the war in Ukraine?

Answer (Summary Of Speech)

No, it's unlikely that Putin would do so, despite having several options to. This is because of his committment to the Russian people, his need to win, and his previous actions that continue to escalate the dispute.

R1 (First Reason)

Putin has fully committed to fighting the war when it comes the the Russian public. Foreign Policy 2/23/23 says that Putin has succeeded in uniting Russians against Ukraine, and he still publicly pushes the narrative that Russia is doing the right thing by invading it's western neighbor and is in fact helping Ukraine in some sense by "freeing" it. The truth is that Putin isn't backing down. As long as he has the support of the the Russian population, including many willing to die for the cause, he will continue to apply pressure to Ukraine. It's simply too late for Putin to remove his committment and change course with the military.

R2 (Second Reason)

Putin's end goal is to win the war in Ukraine. NPR 1/9/23 explains that Putin really only has one option left, and that option is a draw. But he refuses to accept this outcome. He has already wasted Russian resources & troops to the point that any sort of retreat would look bad for Putin and his regime. He has also repeated publicly that Russia won't back down or accept any kind of truce/ceasefire, so he would be betraying his word if he did so.

R3 (Third Reason)

Putin also continues to, and has continued to escalate the situation from the beginning. Reuters 9/21/22 says that Putin has issued several nuclear threats against both Ukraine and the West, and has already used hypersonic missiles in the fight against Ukraine. In fact, it is the biggest use of any European military since World War II, all because of Russia's claims that they are protecting their territorial integrity. Putin has directly called out the West when referring to nuclear arms. It's clear that Putin hasn't changed his mind or position on the conflict at all, and he is still all-in. Russia's attempts in Bakhmut or Kherson show the true ambition that he has regarding Ukraine, and these will continue to be evidenced in the future.

C (Conclusion)

So when it comes to Putin potentially taking an "off-ramp" in the fight against Ukraine, we see that he is extremely unlikely to do so. He has committed to the Russian people that he can win, refuses to accept any other outcome, and continues to escalate the situation.