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AG (Attention Getter)

With the 2022 Midterm elections finally over, America can breathe a sigh of relief, as the political drama has come to a pause. But don't get too relaxed, because the 2024 cycle is already being discussed. And while the Presidential race is receiving the most attention, the Senate contest is also in the conversation a lot too.

BG (Background)

The 2024 election cycle has a Presidential election, many Senate seats up for grabs, and the whole House of Representatives running again. We are potentially going to see a Trump/Biden rematch, even with the possibility of Trump running as a third-party candidate if he were to lose the GOP nomination. In terms of the Senate, Democrats face a hard battle to keep their slim 51-seat majority, and Republicans are likely to win at least 50 seats, meaning Democrats would need the White House and Vice President as well.

Q (Question)

Which Senate seat will be the most challenging for Democrats to protect, and how can they best do it?

Answer (Summary Of Speech)

Although there are mainly two difficult seats for Democrats to protect, being Montana & Arizona, Arizona is clearly the one they need to focus on more, with Kyrsten Sinema being the incumbent senator. This is because Sinema is now an Independent, complicating the race, and because Arizona is always a key swing state.

R1 (First Reason)

It's clear that Kyrsten Sinema's leaving of the party to be an Independent complicates things. Vox 12-31-22 says that Sinema's actions make the race make the race chaotic for everyone, and at the moment it's not even clear if she is running for re-election. Although she typically votes with Democrats & is the incumbent, she isn't the clear favorite for the race. And what's worse for Democrats is that a serious primary challenge could sway undecided voters or on-the-fence voters over to the GOP candidate, as Sinema is partially liked for her extremely un-progressive views on issues. Right now it seems like Ruben Gallego, the Representative for Arizona's 3rd District, is likely to be the challenger if there is one. And he portrays himself as progressive, but traditional as well. But the fact is that even if Sinema won and the Republican candidate lost, Democrats would still be unsatisifed and this wouldn't really help their party.

R2 (Second Reason)

We also know that Arizona is consistently a swing state that is difficult for either paty to gain much traction in. FiveThirtyEight 6/29/20 explains that despite Arizona being largely red in the past few decades, Joe Biden carried the state in 2020, and Senator Mark Kelly won re-election in 2022. Cook Political PVI shows that Arizona is actually +2 for the GOP in terms of partisan leanings. Arizona has been a tossup state for the Presidential, Gubernatorial, and now the Senatorial elections in recent years. And despite previous Democrat success, it will still be a hard state to win this time around.

R3 (Third Reason)

So what should Democrats do to give themselves the best possible odds of winning in Arizona? They simply need to unite, because voters want consensus no matter what. And if Democrats view getting rid of Sinema as a high priority, then they need to pick a high-quality candidate as soon as possible, whether it be Rep. Gallego or not. USA Today 12/10/22 explains that voters need to be voncined, and moderates/independents particularly have to be urged to move on from Sinema, and vote for a Democrat instead. But no matter what the exact strategy is, Democrats have to campaign very delicately in Arizona for 2024.

C (Conclusion)

So it's clear that Democrats have to put in immense effort if they hope to win the state's senate seat again in 2024. This is because they need to make a decision on Kyrsten Sinema, and because Arizona is always a competitive seat.