2023 Election Day Coverage

Analysis & Commentary

Refreshes every two minutes. Last Updated April 21, 2024 at 04:14 PM


Kentucky Governor

Candidate Votes Win Probability

Mississippi Governor

Candidate Votes Win Probability

Ohio Issue 1

Candidate Votes Win Probability

Tuesday, November 7th, 2023:

How To Use This Feed
November 7, 2023 at 9:03 AM

Below you can see three different kinds of posts that will periodically appear on this page. The one that looks the most boring is just a generic text post, and will be used whenever I have some information to share. A "race projection" means I have determined that there is a winner, and you will see a snapshot of the current vote of when I call the race. A "race alert" will just be an update of a race, usually with some explainer text.

Our Coverage Has Ended
November 7, 2023 at 11:33 PM

All races have been called, and a post-election analysis will come later.

CNN: Democrats sweep control of Virginia legislature in major blow to GOP Gov. Youngkin
November 7, 2023 at 11:33 PM

"Democrats will win full control of the Virginia legislature, CNN projects, effectively ending Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s hopes of governing with Republican majorities and enacting his conservative agenda. Virginia Democrats will flip the state House while retaining their majority in the state Senate. Control of the state legislature was at stake in this year’s election, with Republicans defending their narrow majority in the state House. Youngkin, who has been touted as a potential late entrant into the 2024 Republican presidential race currently dominated by Donald Trump, spent much of the past few months rallying GOP voters toward a hoped-for governing trifecta. The elections were also seen, for better or for worse, as a referendum on Youngkin’s non-MAGA brand of conservative politics and the state House of delegates and state Senate candidates who subscribe to it. "

Presley Concedes
November 7, 2023 at 10:54 PM

CNN is reporting that Brandon Presley has called Tate Reeves to concede. They have not projected a winner yet, but we have.

Race Projection
Mississippi Governor
November 7, 2023 at 10:33 PM
Candidate A
Tate Reeves 388,380 (53.08%)
Candidate B
Brandon Presley 333,755 (45.62%)
Estimated vote: 90% reported
Race Alert
Mississippi Governor
November 7, 2023 at 10:27 PM
Tate Reeeves
Tate Reeves 375,306 (53.3%)
Decision Desk HQ Calls Race For Reeves
November 7, 2023 at 10:24 PM

Despite major media outlets still not calling the race, and our calculation showing a favorable lead but still too early to call, DDHQ, the election analysis website that is widely used for sharing election data, has called the race for the incumbent. Brandon Presley's path to victory is increasingly unlikely.

Race Projection
Ohio Issue 1
November 7, 2023 at 8:35 PM
YES 1,285,757 (56.1%)
NO 1,004,648 (43.9%)
Estimated vote: 59% reported
Race Projection
Kentucky Governor
November 7, 2023 at 8:35 PM
Candidate A
Andy Beshear 660,601 (52.6%)
Candidate B
Daniel Cameron 594,280 (47.3%)
Estimated vote: 86% reported
CNN PROJECTS BESHEAR WIN
November 7, 2023 at 7:57 PM
Race Alert
Kentucky Governor
November 7, 2023 at 7:55 PM
Andy Beshear
Andy Beshear 643,954 (52.9%)
Decision Desk HQ Calls Race For Beshear
November 7, 2023 at 7:34 PM

Despite major media outlets still not calling the race, and our calculation showing a favorable lead but still too early to call, DDHQ, the election analysis website that is widely used for sharing election data, has called the race for the incumbent. Daniel Cameron's path to victory is increasingly unlikely.

NBC News: Former Biden aide Gabe Amo wins House special election in Rhode Island
November 7, 2023 at 7:25 PM

"The Democrat will be the first person of color to represent the state in Congress, NBC News projects, succeeding former Rep. David Cicilline."

First Results In Mississippi
November 7, 2023 at 5:34 PM

We are getting the first few batches of results for Mississippi statewide elections. More should come shortly.

POLLS CLOSED IN MISSISSIPPI
November 7, 2023 at 7:00 PM

Polls are now closed in Mississippi, where Republican incumbent Governor Tate Reeves faces Democratic challenger Brandon Presley. Follow the live forecast above.

Populous Mississippi County Will Have Polls Remain Open For Additional Hour
November 7, 2023 at 6:58 PM

A judge has released a ruling that allows polling places to stay open for an additional hour after running out of ballots, a sign of increased turnout, and a positive signal for the Presley campaign.

50% of Expected Vote Counted in Kentucky
November 7, 2023 at 6:54 PM
CNN Exit Poll: Ohio Amendment Has 57.5% Of The Vote
November 7, 2023 at 6:31 PM

CNN has just released preliminary exit polling, and we have calculated that the amendment should pass with around 57% of the vote.

POLLS CLOSED IN OHIO
November 7, 2023 at 6:30 PM

Polls are now closed in Ohio, where a crucial test for abortion as a voting issue is set to play out with a constitutional amendment. Follow the live forecast above. (Yes adds the right to an abortion, No does not)

CNN Poll Finds Trump Leading Biden
November 7, 2023 at 6:23 PM

"One year out from Election Day 2024, former President Donald Trump narrowly leads President Joe Biden, 49% to 45% among registered voters, in a hypothetical rematch in the latest CNN poll conducted by SSRS."

Over a quarter of the total estimated vote is in for Kentucky.
November 7, 2023 at 6:19 PM
Forecasts now updating again.
November 7, 2023 at 6:17 PM
We'll be right back.
November 7, 2023 at 6:00 PM

We are taking a half hour or so break on reporting results, and will return shortly.

POLLS CLOSED IN VIRGINIA
November 7, 2023 at 6:00 PM

Polling places have officially closed in Virginia, where the state's legislature is up for grabs. We do not have a live forcast on this, but will announce when major media outlets have called it for either party.

10% of the Kentucky Gubernatorial vote is in.
November 7, 2023 at 5:54 PM
CNN To Release New Presidential Poll Soon
November 7, 2023 at 5:40 PM

CNN is saying that they will be releasing a new Biden-Trump set of polls tonight. Those will be added to our averages as soon as possible. Currently, our polling averages give Republicans 312 electoral votes to Democrats 226 if the election were held today.

First Results In
November 7, 2023 at 5:34 PM

We are getting the first few batches of results for Kentucky statewide elections. More should come shortly.

NOW: POLLS CLOSED
November 7, 2023 at 5:00 PM

We should now see votes start to stream in from around Kentucky. Stay tuned.

POLLS CLOSE SOON
November 7, 2023 at 4:49 PM

It is officially Election Night in America, and polling places in the Commonwealth of Kentucky are set to close in a matter of minutes. They opened this morning at 6 AM. More updates to come.

Third Republican Debate Is Tomorrow
November 7, 2023 at 11:25 AM

With Republicans attempting to secure two governorships tonight, and the issue of abortion being voted on in several states, tomorrow night's Republican Debate could be very different depending on the results coming in later today. Currently, only 5 candidates have qualified, as both Asa Hutchinson and Doug Burgum have missed the cut, and Mike Pence has dropped out of the race.>

NYT: Turnout Appears To Be High in Mississippi
November 7, 2023 at 11:00 AM

New York Times reports that "In Mississippi, Elizabeth Holbert Jonson, an assistant secretary of state, said a steady stream of voters at polling sites across the state was an encouraging sign for turnout. Another? Absentee ballot requests were up slightly compared with 2019."

NYT: Voting Issues in Kentucky
November 7, 2023 at 10:54 AM

New York Times reports that "Voters were unable to sign their names on electronic registration tablets at 17 precincts this morning in Jefferson County, Ky., because of a technical glitch, slowing down the check-in process in the state’s most populous county, said Erran Huber, a spokesman for the Jefferson County Clerk’s Office. It’s the first time that the county, which includes Louisville and has 627 total precincts, has used the devices in a general election, one headlined by a hard-fought governor’s race."

8 HOURS UNTIL POLLS CLOSE
November 7, 2023 at 9:00 AM

Polls in Kentucky close in ten hours at 5 PM Central.


Monday, November 6th, 2023:

Races To Watch: Virginia Legislature
November 6, 2023 at 9:23 PM

Democrats have the opportunity to win control of both Virginia's State Senate and House of Delegates, posing a threat to Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin's agenda. This could come down to a few key races tomorrow night.

Races To Watch: Ohio Issue 1
November 6, 2023 at 9:19 PM

Ohio's potential constitutional amendment that could be passed by voters Tuesday will effectively secure the right to an abortion in state law, and the vote earlier this year to bring this vote forward passed overwhelmingly with a 57-43% margin in August. It could be a major test for the Democratic party of whether or not abortion is still a key voting issue that can bring out support. Most polling has shown that voters want the amendment to pass, but some concerns have been raised over the vague wording of the amendment.

Races To Watch: Mississippi Governor
November 6, 2023 at 9:16 PM

The second governor's race, and what could be even more interesting if the incumbent loses, is in Mississippi. Incumbent Republican Tate Reeves, who is widely unpopular and has been plagued by scandals, is facing Brandon Presley, (Yes, related to Elvis) a former Public Service Commissioner. The polling has been competitive, but Reeves is still favored to keep his job, with a 76% chance of victory and 53% of the expected voteshare.

Races To Watch: Kentucky Governor
November 6, 2023 at 9:08 PM

What will perhaps be the most competitive statewide election tomorrow night is the battle for Kentucky's governor's mansion. Andy Beshear, the Democrat incumbent, who is also the son of former Gov. Steve Beshear, is set to take on Daniel Cameron, Kentucky's current Attorney General. Beshear has been leading consistently in the polls since the primaries. Currently, he is favored by my forecast with a 75% chance of victory, and a 52.9% expected voteshare, while Camerona has a 25% chance of victory with a 47.1% expected voteshare.

Coverage Begins!
November 6, 2023 at 8:49 PM

My live coverage of Election Day: 2023 has begun! Follow this feed, as well as the live results/projections at the top of the page to stay up to date on election news! This page will begin populating with information tomorrow as we learn more. More recent posts will always be at the top of the feed so you get the latest news first.