2024 Men's March Madness Forecast
Forecasts & Predictions
Updated April 21, 2024 at 04:14 PM
UConn has won the championship.
Mapping out the madness
A live forecast of each team's chances. *Losses are shaded red, and wins are shaded green.
| Team | R64 Win | R32 Win | Sweet 16 Win | Elite 8 Win | Final Four Win | Championship Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn | 93% | 81% | 82% | 69% | 56% | 66% |
| Purdue | 98% | 83% | 65% | 60% | 72% | 34% |
| Alabama | 76% | 80% | 59% | 74% | 44% | 0% |
| NC State | 48% | 72% | 31% | 32% | 28% | 0% |
| Duke | 82% | 57% | 32% | 68% | 0% | 0% |
| Tennessee | 96% | 48% | 45% | 40% | 0% | 0% |
| Illinois | 84% | 86% | 62% | 31% | 0% | 0% |
| Clemson | 74% | 50% | 37% | 26% | 0% | 0% |
| Marquette | 84% | 51% | 69% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Houston | 92% | 69% | 68% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Arizona | 91% | 72% | 63% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Creighton | 83% | 63% | 55% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| North Carolina | 93% | 60% | 41% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Iowa St. | 77% | 57% | 38% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Gonzaga | 74% | 39% | 35% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| San Diego St. | 62% | 59% | 18% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Kansas | 69% | 61% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Texas | 70% | 52% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Baylor | 78% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Colorado | 64% | 49% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Washington St. | 67% | 43% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| James Madison | 43% | 43% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Yale | 17% | 41% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Michigan St. | 51% | 40% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Oregon | 60% | 37% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Texas A&M | 45% | 31% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Dayton | 61% | 28% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Oakland | 27% | 28% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Grand Canyon | 42% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Northwestern | 43% | 19% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Utah St. | 42% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Duquesne | 18% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Auburn | 83% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| BYU | 82% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Kentucky | 73% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| TCU | 59% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Saint Mary's | 58% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Wisconsin | 57% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| FAU | 57% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Nebraska | 55% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Texas Tech | 52% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Mississippi St. | 49% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| South Carolina | 40% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Nevada | 39% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| UAB | 38% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Florida | 36% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Drake | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Samford | 31% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Colorado St. | 30% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| McNeese | 26% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| New Mexico | 26% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Charleston | 24% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| S Dakota St | 23% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Colgate | 22% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Vermont | 18% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Akron | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Morehead St. | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Western Ky. | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Long Beach St. | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Longwood | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Wagner | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Stetson | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Saint Peter's | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Grambling | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Bracket #1: NCAAGameSim.com Bracket
Based on simulations from NCAAGameSim.com, this was my most accurate bracket last year. Click to view in fullscreen.
Bracket #2: HenryDRiley.com Pro Bracket
A combination of the power ratings, ESPN odds, and NCAAGameSim odds. Click to view in fullscreen.
Bracket #3: HenryDRiley.com Power Ratings Bracket
Solely based on seeds and scoring power. Click to view in fullscreen.
