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About the ratings

These qualitative ratings for each state/district in the electoral college, as well as Professor Allan Lichtman's "13 Keys to the White House" let us look at the presidential race in a broader sense, without getting into the miniscule percentages and odds that often can be misleading and unecessary. Below, I'll briefly explain how these ratings works.

The 13 Keys to the White House

The 13 Keys are a well-tested system created by historian and Professor Allan Lichtman. You can read more about him and the keys here. If the incumbent (Biden) has eight or more true keys, then he is predicted to win. But if 6 or more keys are false, the election is expected to go to Trump. I use this site to track the keys, although Professor Lichtman hasn't made his official prediction yet.

My Electoral College ratings

My state-by-state (or district) ratings use six "keys", and whichever candidate has more keys is the predicted winner of that state. If there is a tie, say both candidates get two keys, and two are toss-ups, then that state gets a tossup rating. If a candidate wins all six keys, it's a safe rating. If they have 5 or 4 more than the other candidate, it's likely, and 3 or 2 more is lean, while an advantage by only one produces a tilt rating. *Congressional districts don't have fundraising data and I don't use the Senate key either, so they have lower degrees of confidence.

1. Fundraising

The fundraising key simply looks at who leads in overall campaign receipts, and uses official Federal Elections Commission (FEC) data to determine which candidate wins this key in each state. Fundraising data is available here.

2. Last 5 Presidential Elections

This key goes to whichever party has won more presidential elections in each state in the past 5 cycles. I use historical data from 270toWin.

3. 2020 Winner

Although we already account for how each state has voted over the past few cycles, the most recent one is almost always more predictive of this cycle, particularly with swing states. For this reason, we have a separate key for the last cycle, going to whichever party won it in 2020, which oddly enough, would work if we did this by candidate too. The same data from 270toWin is used.

4. 270toWin Expert Consenus

This key is determined by whichever candidate is favored in the 270toWin Expert Consenus forecast, available here. Some states are rated as toss-ups, so this key can be a toss-up somewhat often. 270toWin uses ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball, Cook Political Report, and others.

5. Polling Average Leader

Here, I simply give this key to whicever candidate is leading in each state/district polling average, all of which are available here. This key can be a toss-up if there is a tie in the average, but that is fairly uncommon.

6. Senate Representation

If the state's two senators are both Democrats, this key goes to Biden. If they are both Republicans, this key goes to Trump. If it is split, the key is a toss-up. *We count independents in Maine, Vermont, and Arizona as Democrats.