2024 Presidential Ratings
Forecasts & Predictions
Updated April 28, 2024 at 09:11 PM
These are the 2024 HenryDRiley.com Ratings for the presidential race. I use Allan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" for the topline prediction of who will win, and my own system of 5 "keys" (polling, fundraising, senators, recent elections, and expert forecasts) to rate each state/district in the Electoral College.
Biden is favored to win by Allan Lichtman's Keys.
My Electoral College ratings predict a Biden win.
The 13 Keys to the White House
How historian Allan Lichtman's keys stand as of now. See the link at the bottom of this page for more details on how these function. A "True" (blue) rating goes for Biden, while a "False" (red) one goes for Trump. If 8 or more are true, Biden should win, but if 6 or more are false, Trump should win.
| Key | Rating |
|---|---|
| 1. Midterm Gains | False |
| 2. No Primary Contest (Democrats) | True |
| Key 3: Incumbent Seeking Re-Election | True |
| Key 4: No Third Party | Lean False |
| Key 5: Strong Short-Term Economy | Likely True |
| Key 6: Strong Long-Term Economy | Likely True |
| Key 7: Major Policy Change | True |
| Key 8: No Social Unrest | Likely True |
| Key 9: No Scandal | Likely True |
| Key 10: No Foreign/Military Failure | Likely True |
| Key 11: Major Foreign/Military Success | Likely False |
| Key 12: Charismatic Incumbent | Likely False |
| Key 13: Unharismatic Challenger | True |
| Result: | 9 True, 4 False (Biden Wins) |
The Electoral College
Ratings for each state based on my 5 "keys" system, explained more in the methodology.
Biden
276
Toss-Up
0
Trump
262
Safe
Likely
Lean
Tilt
Safe
Likely
Lean
Tilt