2024 Senate Nowcast
Forecasts & Predictions
Updated April 28, 2024 at 09:08 PM
This is the HenryDRiley.com Polling Nowcast for the 2024 U.S. Senate cycle. It only uses the current polling averages at the state level, and assumes that elections are held today. It also doesn't add uncertainty for undecided/third party voters, and thus more aggressive and has less uncertainty, whereas my Forecast (coming soon) will include polls and fundamentals and have more uncertainty and less aggressiveness until Election Day.
Republicans would be likely to win the Senate if elections were today.
Chance of winning
The Senate composition is simulated 100,000 times using state nowcasts. *50-50 ties rely on my Presidential Nowcast for determining the majority party.
Democrats
1 in 6
18% chance
Republicans
5 in 6
82% chance
100 of 100,000 Simulations
Democratic Senate
Republican Senate
The 2025 Senate
Average seats and the Nowcast map.
Democrats
49
Republicans
51
Chance of winning
≥95%
≥80%
≥60%
≥50%
≥95%
≥80%
≥60%
≥50%
The path to a majority
Democratic safe states (by probability/margin) are on top, and Republican ones are at the bottom. The highlighted state (or vice presidency) is the tipping point state, meaning whoever can secure all of the states from the top/bottom to the tipping point wins Senate control. *The Vice Presidency only shows when the most likely path has a 50-50 composition, and control is decided by the tie-breaking vote.
| Seat | Democrat Voteshare | Republican Voteshare |
|---|---|---|
| 28 Seats Not Up For Re-Election | ||
| HI, NY, VT, MA, ME, NM, RI, DE, CA, CT, MN, WA, PA, NV, NJ | ||
| Ohio | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Michigan | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| Arizona | 51.1% | 45.8% |
| Montana | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| Virginia | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| Wisconsin | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| Nebraska | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| Vice Presidency | 19% Chance | 81% Chance |
| West Virginia | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Texas | 44.8% | 52.4% |
| MD, FL, MO, IN, MS, TN, UT, NE (Special), WY, ND | ||
| 38 Seats Not Up For Re-Election |
Tipping point
The seat where both parties are most likely to secure a Senate majority.
| Seat | Chance | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Vice Presidency | 19% Harris - Republican 81% | Likely Republican |
How the Nowcast has changed
Chance of winning (%)
Avg. seats
State nowcasts
Select a state
A range of possibilities
What's likely - and what's not - with the Senate composition.
90% of simulations
52
48
to
46
54
Potential landslides
56
44
or
39
61
Democrats' easiest map
Democrats' most likely path to a senate majority.
Republicans' easiest map
Republicans' most likely path to a senate majority. *Currently includes the Vice Presidency, which is not represented in the map.
