Who leads the polls nationally?
Polls & Trackers
This polling average had a pretty big change on April 10th, which is why there is a sharp spike in the chart. I found that the recency weighting factor was far too lenient for older polls, which is good with averages for small races with little polling, but for a national presidential average, means the output basically is not reactive at all and barely ever changes. The recency weighting was halved, meaning polls are weighted half as much as they were before based on date.
leads the national race for the White House.
Biden
Trump
Third Party
Undecided
Current averages
Today's polling average for this race.
Biden
Trump
Third Party
Undecided
Nowcast
Based on 1,000,000 simulations of the election if it were held today. To see the chances of winning the popular vote, view the full Presidential Nowcast.
Estimated voteshare
Biden
Trump
Third Party
Latest polls
The 10 most recent polls in the average, with their adjusted results.
From | To | Rating | LRAV | Sample | Biden | Trump | Third Party | Undecided | Weight | Adj Margin |
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