2023 Wisconsin Election Predictions

Janet Protasiewicz ✓

Daniel Kelly

Why: For an explanation on why I believe Protasiewicz will win, see my speech here.

Satya Rhodes-Conway (i) ✓

Gloria Reyes

Why: This should be a pretty safe election for Rhodes-Conway, as she, an incumbent, faces a challenger who hasn't done much to create separation. The candidates really aren't all that different in terms of policy, or at least if they are, that hasn't been well communicated. Because of this, I automatically favor the incumbent who hasn't had any major controversies or recent problems. Rhodes-Conway is also showing strong progress with her Transit initiatives, a main platform of her campaign.

Badri Lankella ✓

Blair Mosner Feltham

Why: This is perhaps the race we have the least amount of insight/data on, being a local position between two relatively-unknown candidates. However, I give Lankella a slight advantage over Mosner Feltham simply due to two reasons. One, he has a much bigger presence when it comes to advertising, with yard signs around the city. Two, Lankella is taking more of a "reconstructive" approach while Feltham seems to want to start over completely in some areas, and Felthmam is currently an employee at another district, so the argument could be made that she wouldn't be fully dedicated to MMSD. This race truly is a toss-up though.

Nicki Vander Muelen (i) ✓

Why: Vander Muelen, the incumbent for Seat 7, is running unopposed.

John W. Duncan ✓

Why: Duncan is running unopposed for Madison's 1st District Council seat.

Colin Barushok

Juliana R. Bennett ✓

Why: From reading their candidate Q&As, Barushok & Bennet don't differ much on policy or goals. However, Bennett notably touts that she has experience as an alder (currently serving District 8) while Barushok does not, giving her a slight advantage in my view.

Matt Van Eperen

Derek Field ✓

Why: Van Eperen & Field both want to focus on the housing crisis, but Van Eperen is more into dealing with crime and economic equity, whereas Field focuses more on water safety and traffic safety. Neither have clashing viewpoints that are immeadiately recognizable. The only reason I pick Field over Van Eperen is that Field seems to be more active with campaining in the community, and because Van Eperen's list of endorsements (only one person) lacks in comparison to Field's.

Maxwell C. Laubenstein

Michael Verveer (i) ✓

Why: This one is a pretty easy choice for me, with Verveer being a multiple-term incumbent who simply dominates in the area of experience compared to Laubenstein, who has no political office experience. Verveer simply has name recognition and because he has been re-elected many times, we can assume it will be the same this time around.

Regina Vidaver (i) ✓

Why: Vidaver is an incumbent who is running unopposed in the general election.

Davy Mayer

Marsha Rummel ✓

Why: Rummel seems to have far more comprehensive plans for issues on her website, and her list of endorsements is incredibly long, showing public support. She also isn't new to the public eye, and is well-known in the community. Mayer has no endorsement list, and just doesn't have a lot to say on most issues.

Nasra H. Wehelie (i) ✓

Why: Wehelie is an incumbent running unopposed in the general election.

Charlie Fahey

MGR Govindarajan ✓

Why: Not only has MGR called out Fahey for refusing to debate or to participate in any debate alternatives, and has accused him of not being there for his district, but MGR's list of endorsements is very powerful in itself. He has Mayor Rhodes-Conway's endorsement as well as several alders & state senators/representatives, and has a bigger presence overall.

Nino Amato

Nikki Conklin (i) ✓

Why: This one is another race that is a little on the toss-up side, but Conklin's incumbency in addition to having slightly stronger endorsements (including the Mayor) give her a slight advantage.

Yannette Figueroa Cole (i) ✓

Sheri Carter

Why: This one is another hard-to-predict one, and according the candidate's websites, they are endorsed by some of the same people, although it seems that Carter's site perhaps misrepresents certain endorsements, with generic quotes not specifically endorsing her, whereas Figueroa Cole has completed endorsement quotes from the same people. Also, Figueroa Cole is the incumbent, so I think she can expect to win this seat again.

Bill Tishler (i) ✓

Why: Tishler is an incumbent running unopposed for re-election.

Amani Latimer Burris ✓

Julia Matthews

Why: While this one could go either way, and despite Matthews having the endorsement of the mayor, Latimer Burris has a slight advantage due to running previously for other offices and due to having endorsements from local media.

Tag Evers ✓

Why: Evers is an incumbent running unopposed for re-election.

Noah Lieberman ✓

Isadore Knox, Jr.

Why: Not enough information on Knox Jr.

Dina Nina Martinez-Rutherford

Brad Hinkfuss ✓

Why: This one could also go either way, and the candidates don't have much separation. I only give Hinkfuss an advantage due to having the endorsement of District 15's current alder, Grant Foster.

Jael Currie ✓

Kim Richman

Why: Currie should face an easy race as she is the incumbent, and drastically defeats Richman in endorsements, even being endorsed by former Lt. Gov Mandela Barnes.

Sabrina Madison ✓

Why: Unopposed.

Charles Myadze

Michelle Ellinger Linley ✓

Why: I believe that as an incumbent who faces an opponent lacking endorsements and with a similar platform, Ellinger Linley should win this race.

John Guequierre

Kristen Slack ✓

Why: I have a little bit of extra insight on this matchup as it is my home district, and I would pick Slack to win over Guequierre. She has a much greater public presence in terms of advertising, and seems to be more receptive and to have a clearer platform with her campaign.

Matt Phair ✓

Barbara Harrington-McKinney

Why: Phair is a well-liked incumbent who should defeat Harrington-McKinney, a current alder who was redistricted.