Predicting the 2024 Elections

Forecasts & Predictions

Updated April 28, 2024 at 09:16 PM

Latest updates

  • President Biden starts off the general election campaign in a difficult position, trailing or tying with his predecessor in most national polls and in the 6 key swing states (AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, WI). Over the last few weeks, we've seen some potential improvements for the Biden-Harris team, particularly nationally and in the Rust Belt (WI, PA, MI), but not enough to paint a clear picture of their path to re-election, as things currently favor Trump. Trump starts in a good position in my Nowcast, but remember, this A) only uses polls and B) assumes the election is today, explaining it's (over-)confidence.

  • Trump on Trial: The Former President is in court for the next few weeks, over his hush money payments before the 2016 election. The prosecution is currently in the process of having their witnesses testify.

  • The primaries are still technically ongoing, but we of course know that Trump and Biden will be nominated by their parties this summer.

  • This week: View my very first election update video here. It goes into detail on the Nowcast, and explains the state of the race. I hope to make more of these on most Tuesdays until Election Day. The President went after Trump at the White House Correspondents Dinner on Saturday, much like Obama did in 2011. (some say that made Trump run in 2016) Tense protests continue at many major U.S. universities over the Israel/Hamas war, posing a threat to stability that could have ramifications in the election.


Modeling the election using only polls, where the simulations assume the election is today, creating a more aggressive result with less uncertainty.

2024 Presidential Nowcast

Simulating the battle for the White House using only polls, assuming the election is held today.

Last Updated: 4/28/24, 8:49 PM

2024 Senate Nowcast

Simulating the upper chamber of Congress using only polls, assuming elections are held today.

Last Updated: 4/28/24, 9:08 PM


Qualitative ratings using both my 2020 system with five "keys" and Allan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House".

2024 Presidential Ratings

Ratings for the Electoral College using polls, fundraising, and fundamentals.

Last Updated: 4/28/24, 9:11 PM